Earnings Estimates and Stock Selection
Most investors tend to analyze past stock performance when they make decisions regarding an investment. However, stock prices are typically determined by the earnings a company will generate in the future.
Knowledge about the past performance of a company is important since it provides insight on how a company will potentially behave in the future and how it will deal with different market conditions that have been in place in the past.
However, past success is not a guarantee for future success as well. You cannot determine whether the economy will behave in the same way. Additionally, different market events may take place, which may result in a change in the company performance.
Some of the financial entities that provide earnings estimates and track actively traded stocks include:
- Major investment banks
- Brokerage houses
- Other financial institutions
However, these reports represent estimates and predictions, not the actual future earnings of the target company.
As a result of a change in the estimates, the price of the stock may move up or down.
You can find information on the estimates in different online sources. Most sources tend to collect estimates from different sources and average them.
For example, you can refer to Reuters.com or MorningStar.com.
When you study earnings estimates you should keep in mind that these numbers are only a prediction. They can change with time. Additionally, if no analysts predict a growth of a particular company, then this may be an indication that the company may not experience whatsoever growth. Thus, you should address this company with great caution.
Therefore, when you examine a company, look at its past earnings growth. If it is stable it may indicate that this trend will also continue in future. Additionally, study the experts' predictions on earnings growth. If the company's potential is high, then this company represents a good investment candidate.
So, if a company has a steady history of earnings growth and its predictions for the following five years are equally steady, then you are dealing with a good investment opportunity.
Finally, study the past indicators of the company and consider its future prediction estimates. If they are stable and provide good potential for growth then this company is a good candidate for a parking place of your hard-earned money.
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